CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2021-06-27T02:00:00-CME-001)

From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center 
Sent: Monday, June 28, 2021 8:21 AM
To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) 
Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert
 
This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2021-07-01T20:00:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 2
max_estimated_peak_K: 4
probability_of_arrival: 15

---

:Issued: 2021 Jul 07 1030 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity             #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
WEEK 1070 from 2021 Jun 28
SOLAR ACTIVITY
---------------
The main flaring events of the period were featured by a rapidly emerging region
(NOAA 2838) on July 3. The region produced three M flares and an X1.5 flare peaking
at 14:29UT July 3. The region emerged close to the limb and hence could not be
analysed in detail while it rotated off the disc by the end of the week.
This was the first X flare since September 2017 and the first X flare of the new
cycle.
At the start of the week there were two beta regions: NOAA region 2835 and a new
region 2836 emerging to the South-West of 2835. Especially 2835 grew over the week
and developed mixed magnetic fields in the intermediate region. It had significant
flaring potential throughout the week, but only produced a number of C flares, the
strongest of which a C3.6 flare peaking at 18:15UT on June 30.
During the week, another region emerged in the North (NOAA region 2837) but by the
end of the week both NOAA 2836 and 2837 were in decay.

A number of filament eruptions and CMEs have been observed throughout the week of
which 2 were assessed to possibly have an Earth directed component.
A Westward CME is seen in SoHO/LASCO coronagraph data from around 4UT June 27
onwards. Its angular width is around 110 degrees. The same CME is visible from STEREO
A COR 2 data, as directly Westward from STEREO A perspective. It is most likely
associated to a dimming that can be seen just to the West of the disc center between
1-5UT June 27. As a consequence the CME was estimated to be directed only just to the
West of the Sun-Earth line and a glancing blow could not be excluded. The CME was
measured to have a rather low speed of between 300-350 km/s and a possible arrival
was expected around the afternoon of July 1.
A dimming is seen in SDO AIA imagery at around 5:16UT June 29. It originates from
around N15E10 which is the SouthEastern area of the large plage region in the
Northern hemisphere. Coronagraph data from STEREO A display a CME towards the West
from 11:53UT onwards. SoHO/LASCO coronagraph data are not so clear and the signature
is faint. The most clear part is visible from around 6:24UT towards the East. The CME
direction and speed were thus hard to establish based on the available coronagraph
data. Combined with the location of the source region on disc we estimated that an
arrival of an associated CME was not excluded and could occur around noon July 3,
although confidence was low on that forecast.
All other CMEs were assessed to not be Earth directed.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux showed a slight enhancement following the X
flare, but remained below 1 pfu and thus well below the 10 pfu eventthreshold.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu event threshold. The 24h
electron fluence was at normal levels.
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
---------------------
Solar wind conditions were in a nominal slow Solar wind regime until 2:47UT June 30
when a small fast forward shock occurred which was then followed by a build up of the
magnetic field strength and later in the day the increase of Solar wind speed to over
500 km/s. This was the anticipated arrival of the high speed stream from a positive
polarity coronal hole transiting central meridian on June 27. The magnetic field
reached a strength of 13nT with some periods of strong negative values for the Bz
component down to -10nT. Some features of magnetic field rotation can be identified
but it is hard to make any clear identification of the possible arrival of the June
27 CME.
Solar wind speed was only briefly over 500 km/s but saw a somewhat unexpected renewed
increase above 500km/s around midnight July 2 to 3. At that time the phi angle had
also switched into the towards section for a while.
Afterwards, Solar wind speed declined again to nominal slow Solar wind conditions and
there was no sign of a possible arrival of the June 29 CME.

Geomagnetic conditions became active (K=4) for some periods associated to the high
speed stream arrival, but were otherwise quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-2, K Dourbes
0-3).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DAILY INDICES
DATE           RC   EISN  10CM   Ak   BKG    M   X
2021 Jun 28   ///    046   089   004   B1.8   0   0   
2021 Jun 29   054    057   093   009   B1.5   0   0   
2021 Jun 30   ///    056   094   017   B1.7   0   0   
2021 Jul 01   055    053   094   008   B1.5   0   0   
2021 Jul 02   052    059   095   007   B1.5   0   0   
2021 Jul 03   ///    060   094   004   B3.0   2   1   
2021 Jul 04   ///    050   091   004   B2.4   1   0   
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# RC   : Sunspot index (Wolf Number) from Catania Observatory (Italy)
# EISN : Estimated International Sunspot Number
# 10cm : 10.7 cm  radioflux (DRAO, Canada)
# Ak   : Ak Index Wingst (Germany)
# BKG  : Background GOES X-ray level (NOAA, USA)
# M,X  : Number of X-ray flares in M and X class, see below (NOAA, USA)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
03  0704  0717 0722 N23W78 M2.7 SF       ///2838      

03  1418  1429 1434 N24W81 X1.5 SN       ///2838      III/3II/1 

03  1659  1703 1714 N24W82 M1.0 SF       ///2838      

04  0501  0509 0515 N00W00 M1.5 SF       ///2838      


#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #
# Website         http://www.sidc.be.                                #
# E-mail          sidc-support@oma.be                                #
# To unsubscribe  http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php          #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy